Interacting factors driving a major loss of large trees with cavities in a forest ecosystem

Large trees with cavities provide critical ecological functions in forests worldwide, including vital nesting and denning resources for many species. However, many ecosystems are experiencing increasingly rapid loss of large trees or a failure to recruit new large trees or both. We quantify this problem in a globally iconic ecosystem in southeastern Australia - forests dominated by the world's tallest angiosperms, Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans). Tree, stand and landscape-level factors influencing the death and collapse of large living cavity trees and the decay and collapse of dead trees with cavities are documented using a suite of long-term datasets gathered between 1983 and 2011. The historical rate of tree mortality on unburned sites between 1997 and 2011 was >14% with a mortality spike in the driest period (2006-2009). Following a major wildfire in 2009, 79% of large living trees with cavities died and 57-100% of large dead trees were destroyed on burned sites. Repeated measurements between 1997 and 2011 revealed no recruitment of any new large trees with cavities on any of our unburned or burned sites. Transition probability matrices of large trees with cavities through increasingly decayed condition states projects a severe shortage of large trees with cavities by 2039 that will continue until at least 2067. This large cavity tree crisis in Mountain Ash forests is a product of: (1) the prolonged time required (>120 years) for initiation of cavities; and (2) repeated past wildfires and widespread logging operations. These latter factors have resulted in all landscapes being dominated by stands <= 72 years and just 1.16% of forest being unburned and unlogged. We discuss how the features that make Mountain Ash forests vulnerable to a decline in large tree abundance are shared with many forest types worldwide

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Measurement of CP asymmetries and branching fraction ratios of B− decays to two charm mesons

The $CP$ asymmetries of seven $B^-$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9\text{fb}^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a $D^{*0}$ or $D^{*-}_s$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the $D^0$ or $D^-_s$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{*-}_s D^0)$ and $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{-}_s D^{*0})$, and the most precise measurement of the other five $CP$ asymmetries. There is no evidence of $CP$ violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured.The CP asymmetries of seven B$^{−}$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 9 fb$^{−1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a D$^{*0}$ or ${D}_s^{\ast -}$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the D$^{0}$ or ${D}_s^{-}$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A} ^{CP}$(B$^{−}$→${D}_s^{\ast -}$D$^{0}$) and $\mathcal{A} ^{CP}$(B$^{−}$→${D}_s^{-}$D$^{∗0}$), and the most precise measurement of the other five CP asymmetries. There is no evidence of CP violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured.[graphic not available: see fulltext]The $CP$ asymmetries of seven $B^-$ decays to two charm mesons are measured using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $9\text{ fb}^{-1}$ of proton-proton collisions collected by the LHCb experiment. Decays involving a $D^{*0}$ or $D^{*-}_s$ meson are analysed by reconstructing only the $D^0$ or $D^-_s$ decay products. This paper presents the first measurement of $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{*-}_s D^0)$ and $\mathcal{A}^{CP}(B^- \rightarrow D^{-}_s D^{*0})$, and the most precise measurement of the other five $CP$ asymmetries. There is no evidence of $CP$ violation in any of the analysed decays. Additionally, two ratios between branching fractions of selected decays are measured

Helium identification with LHCb

The identification of helium nuclei at LHCb is achieved using a method based on measurements of ionisation losses in the silicon sensors and timing measurements in the Outer Tracker drift tubes. The background from photon conversions is reduced using the RICH detectors and an isolation requirement. The method is developed using pp collision data at √(s) = 13 TeV recorded by the LHCb experiment in the years 2016 to 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.5 fb-1. A total of around 105 helium and antihelium candidates are identified with negligible background contamination. The helium identification efficiency is estimated to be approximately 50% with a corresponding background rejection rate of up to O(10^12). These results demonstrate the feasibility of a rich programme of measurements of QCD and astrophysics interest involving light nuclei

Momentum scale calibration of the LHCb spectrometer

For accurate determination of particle masses accurate knowledge of the momentum scale of the detectors is crucial. The procedure used to calibrate the momentum scale of the LHCb spectrometer is described and illustrated using the performance obtained with an integrated luminosity of 1.6 fb-1 collected during 2016 in pp running. The procedure uses large samples of J/ψ → μ + μ - and B+ → J/ψ K + decays and leads to a relative accuracy of 3 × 10-4 on the momentum scale

New policies for old trees: averting a global crisis in a keystone ecological structure

Large old trees are critical organisms and ecological structures in forests, woodlands, savannas, and agricultural and urban environments. They play many essential ecological roles ranging from the storage of large amounts of carbon to the provision of key habitats for wildlife. Some of these roles cannot be replaced by other structures. Large old trees are disproportionately vulnerable to loss in many ecosystems worldwide as a result of accelerated rates of mortality, impaired recruitment, or both. Drivers of loss, such as the combined impacts of fire and browsing by domestic or native herbivores, chemical spray drift in agricultural environments, and postdisturbance salvage logging, are often unique to large old trees but also represent ecosystem-specific threats. Here, we argue that new policies and practices are urgently needed to conserve existing large old trees and restore ecologically effective and viable populations of such trees by managing trees and forests on much longer time scales than is currently practiced, and by protecting places where they are most likely to develop. Without these steps, large old trees will vanish from many ecosystems, and associated biota and ecosystem functions will be severely diminished or lost

COMT Val158Met polymorphism is associated with post-traumatic stress disorder and functional outcome following mild traumatic brain injury

Mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) results in variable clinical trajectories and outcomes. The source of variability remains unclear, but may involve genetic variations, such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A SNP in catechol-o-methyltransferase (COMT) is suggested to influence development of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), but its role in TBI remains unclear. Here, we utilize the Transforming Research and Clinical Knowledge in Traumatic Brain Injury Pilot (TRACK-TBI Pilot) study to investigate whether the COMT Val158Met polymorphism is associated with PTSD and global functional outcome as measured by the PTSD Checklist – Civilian Version and Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE), respectively. Results in 93 predominately Caucasian subjects with mTBI show that the COMT Met158 allele is associated with lower incidence of PTSD (univariate odds ratio (OR) of 0.25, 95% CI [0.09–0.69]) and higher GOSE scores (univariate OR 2.87, 95% CI [1.20–6.86]) 6-months following injury. The COMT Val158Met genotype and PTSD association persists after controlling for race (multivariable OR of 0.29, 95% CI [0.10–0.83]) and pre-existing psychiatric disorders/substance abuse (multivariable OR of 0.32, 95% CI [0.11–0.97]). PTSD emerged as a strong predictor of poorer outcome on GOSE (multivariable OR 0.09, 95% CI [0.03–0.26]), which persists after controlling for age, GCS, and race. When accounting for PTSD in multivariable analysis, the association of COMT genotype and GOSE did not remain significant (multivariable OR 1.73, 95% CI [0.69–4.35]). Whether COMT genotype indirectly influences global functional outcome through PTSD remains to be determined and larger studies in more diverse populations are needed to confirm these findings